COVID-19 thoughts
Mar. 12th, 2020 06:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
potofsoupMy school has been hovering on the brink of closing for the last 2 weeks (next week is going to be "professional development" days, probably followed by going remote.) Also, Chinese School has been remote for the last 6 weeks. Toddler Rutabaga's preschool still remains open. My parents have gone into self-quarantine to keep themselves from getting the virus. Meanwhile, life in the city an hour drive away seems pretty unaffected. It's been interesting to move between these spaces -- the overseas Chinese community, which has been panicking on WeChat for the last 6 weeks, my work community, which has been wiffling about closing for the last 2 weeks, and some of my social groups across the Bay, who are kind of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
At least my local and work community seems to be catching up with panicked parents on WeChat.
Anyway, here's some thoughts:
There's a lot of COVID-19 info out there, but here's what I find to be the 3 most important facts:
1) It's roughly 3 times as contagious as the normal flu (R=3-ish, vs. flu R=1)
2) It's pretty mild for kids and adults <40yo, though still 10 times more deadly than the flu (0.2% death rate vs. 0.01% for flu) [x]
3) It's *really* bad for people > 60yo, with 15% death rate for 80+yo, and roughly twice as deadly for men than women [x]
(sorry for the sketchy links -- I've seen these stats at more legit sites, but too lazy to track those down again)
There's actually been no deaths for kids under age 10, which means that it's not a super big deal if Rutabaga got it. BUT it would be really bad for my parents to get it.
So really, the goals here are to prevent the older people in our lives from getting it, and to slow down the spread of it in general. If it's 3 times as contagious, we need to be at least 3 times as cautious.
1) Protecting older people
I really like the proactive things that my parents are doing -- cleaning a lot, only going out once a week for groceries, mostly staying at home. I imagine it to be also be lonely and frustrating, so one way I can support them is maybe to skype with them, so that they're not too socially isolated. I imagine some other seniors in the neighborhood might need more support in either remaining isolated, or getting food and other needs to them.
2) Personal hygiene
This is the stuff that the CDC has been harping on --
- sneezing into your sleeve (seriously why are people at my school so bad at this? I see, like 5 hand sneezes a day)
- not touching nose/mouth/eyes with hands (this one's hard, although I've been getting better at it),
- sanitizing a communal object before/after using it
- lots of hand washing
- staying >3ft away from other people (ideally >6 ft. I think of it as "if our fingertips can touch, we're too close)
2) Reducing community exposure.
On an average day, I drive my car to work, and work has ~500 people roaming the same hallways for ~8 hours. Those 500 people then have families who have lives, etc.
Hoosband takes the train to work, which has ~200 people getting on and off of one train car during his hour-long ride. Then he's at his job with ~20 people for 8 hours, then another ~200 people on the train ride back.
Rutabaga hangs out with ~40 kids at her preschool, plus the pick-up/drop-off area has various parents passing through.
So between the 3 of us, we're around ~1000 people per day. Of the three of us, me and Hoosband are exposed to far more people than Rutabaga. Hoosband is already working from home, which cuts our family exposure to ~540 people. If my school goes remote, it'll reduce our family exposure to 40. If Rutabaga's school closes, then that number would be <10.
But staying cooped up is really not good for mental health! Thus far, the local public health agencies are advising against gatherings of >100, and caution for gatherings >50. Italy has closed all stores besides groceries and pharmacies, and you have to eat 3 ft apart in restaurants. I feel like that's a pretty decent guide to go by -- only go shopping for essentials, practice extreme caution in public areas, and keep my family's people-contacted count to be <50. I don't think I can really interact with my parents unless my people-contacted count is <5 (probably 10 if the people I contact have similarly low contact counts).
So here's some likely scenarios for the coming weeks:
A) Hoosband and I both work from home, Rutabaga goes to preschool. Our people-contacted count would be ~40, so we probably shouldn't go to taiko (~20 people) or comics (~10 people).
B) Rutabaga's preschool closes, Hoosband and I take turns taking days off to take care of her. Our people-contacted count would be <10, so we might go to taiko (~20) or comics (~10) and exercise extreme caution.
C) Rutabaga's preschool closes, we wait 3-5 days to make sure that none of us have the virus (it's asymptomatic for 2-7 days, with an average of 4), and then my parents can watch Rutabaga while Hoosband and I work from home. We won't do taiko or comics because that'd bring our contact numbers up again.
I think we might phase between these 3 options, depending on when different things close and how long they stay closed. (Some schools are talking about staying closed until the end of the school year, which is ... 3 months!!)
At least my local and work community seems to be catching up with panicked parents on WeChat.
Anyway, here's some thoughts:
There's a lot of COVID-19 info out there, but here's what I find to be the 3 most important facts:
1) It's roughly 3 times as contagious as the normal flu (R=3-ish, vs. flu R=1)
2) It's pretty mild for kids and adults <40yo, though still 10 times more deadly than the flu (0.2% death rate vs. 0.01% for flu) [x]
3) It's *really* bad for people > 60yo, with 15% death rate for 80+yo, and roughly twice as deadly for men than women [x]
(sorry for the sketchy links -- I've seen these stats at more legit sites, but too lazy to track those down again)
There's actually been no deaths for kids under age 10, which means that it's not a super big deal if Rutabaga got it. BUT it would be really bad for my parents to get it.
So really, the goals here are to prevent the older people in our lives from getting it, and to slow down the spread of it in general. If it's 3 times as contagious, we need to be at least 3 times as cautious.
1) Protecting older people
I really like the proactive things that my parents are doing -- cleaning a lot, only going out once a week for groceries, mostly staying at home. I imagine it to be also be lonely and frustrating, so one way I can support them is maybe to skype with them, so that they're not too socially isolated. I imagine some other seniors in the neighborhood might need more support in either remaining isolated, or getting food and other needs to them.
2) Personal hygiene
This is the stuff that the CDC has been harping on --
- sneezing into your sleeve (seriously why are people at my school so bad at this? I see, like 5 hand sneezes a day)
- not touching nose/mouth/eyes with hands (this one's hard, although I've been getting better at it),
- sanitizing a communal object before/after using it
- lots of hand washing
- staying >3ft away from other people (ideally >6 ft. I think of it as "if our fingertips can touch, we're too close)
2) Reducing community exposure.
On an average day, I drive my car to work, and work has ~500 people roaming the same hallways for ~8 hours. Those 500 people then have families who have lives, etc.
Hoosband takes the train to work, which has ~200 people getting on and off of one train car during his hour-long ride. Then he's at his job with ~20 people for 8 hours, then another ~200 people on the train ride back.
Rutabaga hangs out with ~40 kids at her preschool, plus the pick-up/drop-off area has various parents passing through.
So between the 3 of us, we're around ~1000 people per day. Of the three of us, me and Hoosband are exposed to far more people than Rutabaga. Hoosband is already working from home, which cuts our family exposure to ~540 people. If my school goes remote, it'll reduce our family exposure to 40. If Rutabaga's school closes, then that number would be <10.
But staying cooped up is really not good for mental health! Thus far, the local public health agencies are advising against gatherings of >100, and caution for gatherings >50. Italy has closed all stores besides groceries and pharmacies, and you have to eat 3 ft apart in restaurants. I feel like that's a pretty decent guide to go by -- only go shopping for essentials, practice extreme caution in public areas, and keep my family's people-contacted count to be <50. I don't think I can really interact with my parents unless my people-contacted count is <5 (probably 10 if the people I contact have similarly low contact counts).
So here's some likely scenarios for the coming weeks:
A) Hoosband and I both work from home, Rutabaga goes to preschool. Our people-contacted count would be ~40, so we probably shouldn't go to taiko (~20 people) or comics (~10 people).
B) Rutabaga's preschool closes, Hoosband and I take turns taking days off to take care of her. Our people-contacted count would be <10, so we might go to taiko (~20) or comics (~10) and exercise extreme caution.
C) Rutabaga's preschool closes, we wait 3-5 days to make sure that none of us have the virus (it's asymptomatic for 2-7 days, with an average of 4), and then my parents can watch Rutabaga while Hoosband and I work from home. We won't do taiko or comics because that'd bring our contact numbers up again.
I think we might phase between these 3 options, depending on when different things close and how long they stay closed. (Some schools are talking about staying closed until the end of the school year, which is ... 3 months!!)
no subject
Date: 2020-03-13 06:17 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-13 02:23 pm (UTC)ah, thank you! Yeah, just trying to figure some general guidelines for myself. :)
no subject
Date: 2020-03-13 11:53 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 06:32 am (UTC)Yeah, good luck! Please stay safe and wash hands! Glad that being introverted hermits is a plus in this case! :)
no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 04:20 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-03-14 06:31 am (UTC)Thanks! Yeah, her preschool just closed. All the schools are pretty much closed/remote until Apr 3. I don't know how long past that -- some are saying possibly until May. Ay.